• 多項經濟指標回暖,機構預計2019年GDP增速為6.1%

    時事 > | Time Weekly - 2020-01-05 17:25:35 來源:時代周報
  • 時代周報記者:楊佳欣

    ZHONGGUOJINGJIZHENGZAIJINGLILIUANHUAMING。2019NIANSIJIDUZHONGGUOJINGJIJIJIXINHAOZENGDUO,DUOXIANGJINGJIZHIBIAOCHUXIANHUINUANJIXIANG。

    1YUE4RI,QINGHUADAXUEZHONGGUOJINGJISIXIANGSHIJIANYANJIUYUANYUZHONGGUOYUSHIJIEJINGJIYANJIUZHONGXINZAIJINGFABU《ZHONGGUOHONGGUANJINGJIFENXIYUYUCE》(XIACHENG“BAOGAO”)。BAOGAOYUCE,2019NIANQUANNIANGDPZENGCHANG6.1%,2020NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIZENGSUJIANGZHIZHUZHUJIXIAHUATAISHI,QUANNIANZENGCHANG 6.1%。

    2019NIANQIANSANJIDU,ZHONGGUOGDPZENGSUFENBIEWEI6.4%、6.2%、6.0%。?“GDPZENGSUNENGFOUBAO‘6’,SHIDANGQIANDEREDIANWENTI。”QINGHUADAXUEZHONGGUOJINGJISIXIANGYUSHIJIANYANJIUYUANYANJIUYUANYUANGANGMINGBIAOSHI,CONGMUQIANLAIKAN,2019NIANSANJIDUDUOXIANGJINGJIZHIBIAOCHUXIANLESHANGQIAO。“YOUKENENGJINNIANQUANNIANZUIHOUGONGBUDESHUJUSHI6.1%,DANYEYOUKENENGXIAJIANGDAO6.0%。”

    FENXIDANGQIANHONGGUANJINGJIXINGSHIFANGMIAN,BAOGAOZHICHU,DANGQIANZHONGGUONEIXUHUOYUEDUBUZU,CHANGQIXUQIUSHIFANGQIANLIRENGZAI。CONGGUOJISHIJIAOKAN,QUANQIUJINGJIZENGCHANGQIANJINGANDAN,WAIXUTUIDONGMOSHIRENGXUZHUANBIAN。

    BAOGAOZHICHU,ZAIQUANMIANJIANCHENGXIAOKANGSHEHUI,DAYINGFUPINGONGJIANZHANZHIHOU,YINGDANGJIXUHANGSHICHENGGUO,ZHIDINGZHONGDENGSHOURUQUNTIBEIZENGJIHUA,JIFAZHONGGUOJINGJIDENEIZAIHUOLI,SHIFANGZHONGCHANGQIZENGCHANGQIANLI。

    DUICI,BAOGAOTICHULIUFANGMIANZHENGCEJIANYI:CHIXUKUODAZHONGDENGSHOURUQUNTI,CUJINZHONGGUOGUONEIXUQIUJINYIBUSHIFANG;QICHEDUANQIXIAOLIANGJIANGFUSHOUZHAI,CHANGQIXUQIUQIANLIKEQI;YILIAOJIAOYUXUQIUCHIXUJIAOKUAIZENGCHANG,GONGGONGFUWUGONGGEIXUYAOBUDUANBAN;JIJIANTOUZICHANGQIXUQIURENGZAI,ZHONGZAIGUANLIYOUHUA;FANGDICHANGONGGEIXIANGDUIBUZU,XUQIUSHIFANGKEQI;DAZAOGAOZHILIANGJINRONGSHICHANG,SHIFANGJINRONGXUQIUQIANLI。

    四肖期期中准天天中码JINZHUANGUOJIAXINKAIFAYINXINGSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIALIDAOKUIBIAOSHI,WEILAIZHONGGUOJINGJIYINGGAIZHUBUZHUANBIANFAZHANSILU,CONGCONGGUOQUZHUYAOGUANZHUGONGGEIFANGZHUANXIANGGUANZHUDUISHICHANGXUQIUDEGUANLI,SHIFANGCHUCHANGQISHICHANGXUQIU。“ZHEKAOYANZHUZHONGGUODEGUOJIAZHILIXIANDAIHUADEBENSHI,GUOJIAZHILITIXIXIANDAIHUAJUEDUIBUSHIKONGHUA,LUOSHIDAOJINGJIFAZHANFANGMIAN,JIUSHIYAOSHIFANGZHONGDENGSHOURURENQUNDEFUZAXUQIU。”

    2019年CPI預計為2.9%

    2019NIANZHONGGUOCPITONGBIZHANGFUCHENGBUDUANSHANGSHENGQUSHI。

    四肖期期中准天天中码SHUJUXIANSHI,2019NIAN11YUEFEN,JUMINXIAOFEIZHEJIAGEZHISHUCPITONGBISHANGZHANG4.5%,JIAOSHANGYUEZHI3.8%ZENGSUZENGJIA0.7GEBAIFENDIAN。1-11YUECPIJUNBAOCHICHIXUSHANGZHANGQUSHI,ZIJINNIAN4YUEFENJINRU“2SHIDAI”ZHIHOU,YOUYU9YUEFENJINRULECHAOGUO3%DEZENGCHANGQUJIAN。

    四肖期期中准天天中码ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI,ANZHAOSHIPINYUFEISHIPINDALEILAIFEN,2019NIANLIANGZHEJIAGEDEZHANGFUCHUXIANMINGXIANFENHUA。

    SHUJUXIANSHI,SHIPINCPICONGJINNIAN2YUEFENKAISHILIANYUEPANSHENG,CONG4YUEFENKAISHIJUNGAOYU5%DETONGBIZENGSU,11YUEFENTONGBIZENGSUGENGSHIGAODA19.1%。FEISHIPINCPIZEZENGSUPINGWENXIAHUA,QIAN11GEYUETONGBIZHANGFUJUNXIAOYU 2%。TEBIESHITICHUZHUROUHOUDEQIYUSHANGPINJIAGESHUIPINGCHENGXIANPINGWENXIAJIANGSHITOU,ZAIJINNIAN3-7YUETONGBIZENGSUPINGWENZAI 2-2.5%QUJIAN,ZHIHOULIANYUETONGBIZENGSUJUNPINGWENXIAHUA,DIYU2%DEZENGCHANGLV,XIANGUOLEIJUMINXIAOFEIJIAGEZHISHUCONGDISIJIDUYILAISHENZHIWEIFUSHU。

    DUICI,BAOGAOZHICHU,TICHUZHUROUDUANQIYINGXIANGWAI,QITASHANGPINWUJIAZONGTICHENGXIANPINGWENXIAHUAZOUSHI,ZHEZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGFANYINGLEZHONGGUOGUONEIXUQIUPIRUANDEXIANZHUANG。

    BAOGAOBIAOSHI,CILUNCPISHANGZHANG,ZHUYAOSHOUZHUROUDENGSHIPINJIAGESHANGZHANGTUIDONG。

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    四肖期期中准天天中码SHUJUXIANSHI,2019NIAN11YUECPITONGBISHANGZHANG4.5%,DANGYUEZHUROUJIAGESHANGZHANG110.2%,YINGXIANGCPISHANGZHANGYUE2.64GEBAIFENDIAN。

    BAOGAOYUCE,SUIZHUFEIZHOUZHUWENYIQINGZHUJIANPINGWEN,DIFANGZHICHIZHENGCELUODI,YUJISHENGCHANJIJIXINGJIANGJINYIBUTISHENG,SHENGCHANHUIFUSHENGFENZENGDUO,ZHUROUSHICHANGGONGYINGYOUWANGZAI 2020 NIANZHUBUWENDING,RANGCPISHANGZHANGSHITOUJIANGWEN。2019NIANCPIYUJIWEI2.9%,2020NIANQUANNIANCPIYUJIWEI3.4%。

    房地產投資增速下行

    ZAIFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIFANGMIAN,2019NIANZHONGGUOTOUZICHENGXIANZENGSUXIAXINGDEQUSHI,ZHENGCESHANGQIWENFENHUA。SHUJUXIANSHI,2019NIAN1-11YUE,QUANGUOFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZI121265 YIYUAN,ZENGSUBI1—10YUEFENHUILUO0.1GEBAIFENDIAN。1—11 YUE,SHANGPINFANGXIAOSHOUMIANJI148905WANPINGFANGMI,ZENGSUBI1—10YUEFENHUISHENG0.1GEBAIFENDIAN。

    四肖期期中准天天中码11YUEFEN,FANGDICHANKAIFAJINGQIZHISHUWEI101.16,BI10YUEFENTIGAO0.02DIAN。2019NIAN,YIXIANCHENGSHIZHUZHAIJIAGEXIAOFUTISHENG,ERERSANXIANCHENGSHIZHUZHAIJIAGELEIJIZHANGFUXIAOFUHUILUO,BUFENCHENGSHIERSHOUFANGJIAGECHIXUXIADIE。

    四肖期期中准天天中码BAOGAOYUJI,2020NIANFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIJIANGYANXU 2019NIANXIABANNIANDEXIAOFUXIAXINGQUSHI,NANYIFUZHI2019 NIANDEZENGSUHUISHENG。2019NIANZHONGGUOFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIZENGSUWEI10%,2020NIANQUANNIANZHONGGUOFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIZENGSUXIAOFUHUILUOZHI9%。

    四肖期期中准天天中码YIFANGMIAN,2019NIANSHANGBANNIANFANGDICHANTOUZIZENGCHANGDEZHUYAODONGLIWEITUDIGOUZHIFEIYONG。2019NIANSHANGBANNIANTUDIGOUZHIFEIYONGZHANFANGDICHANTOUZIDEBILICHAOGUO30%,YUANCHAOGUOLISHIPINGJUNSHUIPING;LINGYIFANGMIAN,TUDIGOUZHIFEIYONGDEZENGCHANGDABUFENLAIZIYUQUNIANTUDIJIAOYIDEYANQIFUKUAN,JINRU 2019NIANHOUTUDICHENGJIAOLIANGDAFUXIAXING,YINCI,2019NIANFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIDECILUNZENGSUHUISHENGBUJUYOUKECHIXUXING,FANGDICHANSHICHANGDUANQINEIGONGGEIHEXUQIULIANGFANGMIANJUNMEIYOUXIANZHULIHAO。

    四肖期期中准天天中码DANSHIBAOGAOYEZHICHU,2019 NIANXIABANNIANYILAIFANGDICHANXIAOSHOUZENGSULVEYOUHUISHENG,ZAIJIASHANGYIERXIANCHENGSHIZHUFANGXUQIURENGRANWANGSHENG,YINCIFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIZENGSUSHISUDEYALIYEBIJIAOXIAO。

    四肖期期中准天天中码ZAIZHENGCECENGMIAN,BAOGAOZHICHU,2020 NIANQUANGUOFANGDICHANDIAOKONGZHENGCERENGRANYIWENWEIZHU,CHUXIANDAFUDUCIJIZHENGCEDEKENENGXINGJIAOXIAO。ERSUIZHU“YICHENGYICE”JINYIBULUOSHI,BUTONGDIQUFANGDICHANDIAOKONGZHENGCEYOUSUOFENHUA,SHANGHAI、SHENZHEN、GUANGZHOU、NANJINGHEQINGDAODENGYIERXIANCHENGSHIDEXIANGOUZHENGCEYOUSUOFANGKUAN。BAOGAORENWEI,BUFENGANGXUWANGSHENGCHENGSHIDEFANGDICHANSHICHANGJIANGKENENGCHUXIANHUORE。

    2019年底杠桿率將達216%

    四肖期期中准天天中码2019NIANZHONGGUOHONGGUANGANGGANLVXIAOFUSHANGSHENG。GENJUGUOJIAZICHANFUZHAIBIAOYANJIUZHONGXINCESUAN,2019 NIANDISANJIDUZHONGGUOSHITIJINGJI(BAOKUOZHENGFU、FEIJINRONGQIYEHEJUMIN)GANGGANLVWEI 251.1%,YU 2018 NIANMODE 243.7%XIANGBI,SHANGSHENGLE7.4GEBAIFENDIAN。

    四肖期期中准天天中码BAOGAOYUCE,JIEZHI2019NIANDIZHONGGUOGANGGANLVWEI216%,BI2018NIANNIANMODESHUIPINGGAO5GEBAIFENDIAN。

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    四肖期期中准天天中码BAOGAOTICHU,ZHONGGUOJINNIANLAIGANGGANLVDESHANGSHENGYOUQINEIZAIYUANYIN:DIYI,ZHONGGUOJINNIANLAIFANGDICHANSHICHANGDEFAZHANHEJINRONGSHENHUADETUIJIN,SHIDEDALIANGDETUDI、FANGWUDENGSHIWUZICHANKEYIYONGZUODIYAYIHUOQUYINXINGXINDAIZIJIN,ZHEHENDACHENGDUSHANGTAIGAOLEJUMINBUMENHEFEIJINRONGQIYEBUMENDEGANGGANLV;DIER,2008 NIANYILAIDIFANGZHENGFUJIADAJIJIANTOUZILIDU,GENJUXIANGGUANCESUANDIFANGZHENGFUYINXINGFUZHAIGUIMODADAO 30 WANYI,ZHUYAOLAIYUANYUYINXINGDEXINDAIZIJIN,ZHUTUILEGANGGANLVDESHANGSHENG;DISAN,ZHONGGUORONGZIJIEGOUZHONGGUQUANRONGZIZHANBIDI、GUOMINCHUXULVCHANGQICHIXUJIAOGAOSHUIPING,SHIDEDALIANGDETOUZIZUIZHONGYIZHAIWUXINGSHICUNZAI,TUIGAOLEZHONGGUOGANGGANLVDEZHENGTISHUIPING。

    ZHONGYANGJINGJIGONGZUOHUIYIZAIFANGFANHUAJIEZHONGDAFENGXIANLINGYUDEBUSHUZHONGMINGQUETIDAO,“YAOBAOCHIHONGGUANGANGGANLVJIBENWENDING,YASHIGEFANGZEREN。”

    BAOGAOYETICHULEZHENGCEJIANYI,JICHENGLIQUANGUOXINGDEJICHUSHESHITOUZIGONGSI,TONGYIGUANLIDIFANGJIJIANXIANGMUDEGUIHUA、RONGZI、JIANSHEYUJIANDU。CONGFAGAIWEI、CAIZHENGBU、SHENJISHUYIJIQITAXIANGGUANBUMENCHOUDIAOZHINENGRENYUAN,BIZHAOSHIJIEYINXINGJIQITAGUOJIKAIFAJIGOUDEYUNZUOFANGSHI,YOUZHEYIGONGSIDUIQUANGUODIFANGZHENGFUDEJIJIANXIANGMUJINXINGSHICHANGHUACHENGBENSHOUYIFENXI,FAXINGZHAIQUANHUOZUZHISHEHUIZIBENWEIXIANGMURONGZI,BINGXINGSHICHUZIRENQUANLIDUIXIANGMUJINXINGJIANDU、ZHUIZE。

    TONGGUOGAIFANGFA,BAOGAORENWEI,YIFANGMIAN,KEYIBADIFANGDEYINXINGZHAIWUCONGYINXINGTIXIZHONGQIEGECHUQU、ZHUANERYILAIZHAIQUANRONGZI,BURANGDIFANGZHENGFUDERONGZIHEZAIRONGZIJIXUJIZHANBAOGUIDEYINXINGXINDAIZIYUAN,CONGERYOUXIAOHUANJIEQIYEYOUQISHIZHONGXIAOQIYEDERONGZIYALI;LINGYIFANGMIAN,TONGGUOXINGZHENGSHOUDUANHESHICHANGSHOUDUAN“SHUANGGUANQIXIA”,KEDUIDIFANGZHENGFUDEJIEDAIXINGWEIJINXINGGENBENXINGDEYOUXIAOGUANLI,CONGERDUIQIJIJIANXINGWEICHANSHENGYOUXIAOZHIYUE。


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