• 多項經濟指標回暖 機構預計2019年GDP增速為6.1%

    時事 > | Time Weekly - 2020-01-07 03:05:48 來源:時代周報
  • [摘要] 多家機構近日表示,2019年四季度中國經濟積極信號增多,多項經濟指標出現回暖跡象—PMI等宏觀經濟先行指標已經連續兩個月位于榮枯線以上,預計四季度GDP增速有望超過6.0%。

    時代周報記者 楊佳欣 發自北京

    四肖期期中准天天中码SHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHECONGGUOJIATONGJIJUWANGZHANSHANGHUOXI,2019NIAN12YUEDEHONGGUANJINGJISHUJUJIANGYUBENZHOUQILUXUCHULU。CIWAI,GUOJIATONGJIJUHUANJIANGYU1YUE17RIJUXINGXINWENFABUHUI,JIESHIJIANGGONGBU2019NIANSIJIDUGDPDENGHONGGUANJINGJISHUJU。

    四肖期期中准天天中码DUOJIAJIGOUJINRIBIAOSHI,2019NIANSIJIDUZHONGGUOJINGJIJIJIXINHAOZENGDUO,DUOXIANGJINGJIZHIBIAOCHUXIANHUINUANJIXIANG—PMIDENGHONGGUANJINGJIXIANXINGZHIBIAOYIJINGLIANXULIANGGEYUEWEIYURONGKUXIANYISHANG,YUJISIJIDUGDPZENGSUYOUWANGCHAOGUO6.0%。

    1YUE4RI,QINGHUADAXUEZHONGGUOJINGJISIXIANGYUSHIJIANYANJIUYUANHEZHONGGUOYUSHIJIEJINGJIYANJIUZHONGXINZAIJINGFABU《ZHONGGUOHONGGUANJINGJIFENXIYUYUCE》(XIACHENG“BAOGAO”)。BAOGAOYUCE,2019NIANQUANNIANGDPZENGCHANG6.1%,2020NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIZENGSUJIANGZHIZHUZHUJIXIAHUATAISHI,QUANNIANZENGCHANGWEI 6.1%。

    四肖期期中准天天中码SHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEZAIFABUHUIXIANCHANGHUOXI,DUOWEIYUHUIXUEZHERENWEI,2019NIANQUANNIANGDPZENGSU“BAO6”JIANGZAIYILIAOZHIZHONG。QINGHUADAXUEZHONGGUOJINGJISIXIANGYUSHIJIANYANJIUYUANYANJIUYUANYUANGANGMINGBIAOSHI,CONGMUQIANLAIKAN,2019NIANSANJIDUDUOXIANGJINGJIZHIBIAOCHUXIANLESHANGQIAO。“YOUKENENGJINNIANQUANNIANZUIHOUGONGBUDESHUJUSHI6.1%,YEYOUKENENGXIAJIANGDAO6.0%。”

    四肖期期中准天天中码JINZHUANGUOJIAXINKAIFAYINXINGSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIALIDAOKUIBIAOSHI,WEILAIZHONGGUOJINGJIYINGGAIZHUBUZHUANBIANFAZHANSILU,CONGGUOQUZHUYAOGUANZHUGONGGEIFANGZHUANXIANGGUANZHUDUISHICHANGXUQIUDEGUANLI,SHIFANGCHUCHANGQISHICHANGXUQIU。

    2019年CPI預計為2.9%

    四肖期期中准天天中码2019NIANZHONGGUOCPITONGBIZHANGFUCHENGBUDUANSHANGSHENGQUSHI。SHUJUXIANSHI,2019NIAN11YUEFEN,CPITONGBISHANGZHANG4.5%,JIAOSHANGYUEZHI3.8%ZENGSUZENGJIA0.7GEBAIFENDIAN。1―11YUECPIJUNBAOCHICHIXUSHANGZHANGQUSHI,ZI2019NIAN4YUEFENJINRU“2SHIDAI”ZHIHOU,YOUYU9YUEFENJINRULECHAOGUO3%DEZENGCHANGQUJIAN。

    ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI,ANZHAOSHIPINYUFEISHIPINDALEILAIFEN,2019NIANLIANGZHEJIAGEDEZHANGFUCHUXIANMINGXIANFENHUA。

    SHUJUXIANSHI,SHIPINCPICONG2019NIAN2YUEFENKAISHILIANYUEPANSHENG,CONG4YUEFENKAISHIJUNGAOYU5%DETONGBIZENGSU,11YUEFENTONGBIZENGSUGENGSHIGAODA19.1%。FEISHIPINCPIZEZENGSUPINGWENXIAHUA,QIAN11GEYUETONGBIZHANGFUJUNXIAOYU2%。TEBIESHITICHUZHUROUHOUDEQIYUSHANGPINJIAGESHUIPINGCHENGXIANPINGWENXIAJIANGSHITOU,ZAI2019NIAN3―7YUETONGBIZENGSUPINGWENZAI2%―2.5%QUJIAN,ZHIHOULIANYUETONGBIZENGSUJUNPINGWENXIAHUA,DIYU2%DEZENGCHANGLV,XIANGUOLEIJUMINXIAOFEIJIAGEZHISHUCONGDISIJIDUYILAISHENZHIWEIFUSHU。

    BAOGAOZHICHU,TICHUZHUROUDUANQIYINGXIANGWAI,QITASHANGPINWUJIAZONGTICHENGXIANPINGWENXIAHUAZOUSHI,ZHEZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGFANYINGLEZHONGGUOGUONEIXUQIUPIRUANDEXIANZHUANG。

    四肖期期中准天天中码SHUJUXIANSHI,2019NIAN11YUEZHUROUJIAGESHANGZHANG110.2%,YINGXIANGCPISHANGZHANGYUE2.64GEBAIFENDIAN。BAOGAOYUCE,2019NIANCPIYUJIWEI2.9%,2020NIANQUANNIANCPIYUJIWEI3.4%。

    房地產投資增速下行

    四肖期期中准天天中码ZAIFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIFANGMIAN,2019NIANZHONGGUOTOUZICHENGXIANZENGSUXIAXINGDEQUSHI,ZHENGCESHANGQIWENFENHUA。SHUJUXIANSHI,2019NIAN1―11YUE,QUANGUOFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZI121265YIYUAN,ZENGSUBI1―10YUEFENHUILUO0.1GEBAIFENDIAN。1—11YUE,SHANGPINFANGXIAOSHOUMIANJI148905WANPINGFANGMI,ZENGSUBI1―10YUEFENHUISHENG0.1GEBAIFENDIAN。11YUEFEN,FANGDICHANKAIFAJINGQIZHISHUWEI101.16,BI10YUEFENTIGAO0.02DIAN。2019NIAN,YIXIANCHENGSHIZHUZHAIJIAGEXIAOFUTISHENG,ERERSANXIANCHENGSHIZHUZHAIJIAGELEIJIZHANGFUXIAOFUHUILUO,BUFENCHENGSHIERSHOUFANGJIAGECHIXUXIADIE。

    BAOGAOYUJI,2020NIANFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIJIANGYANXU 2019NIANXIABANNIANDEXIAOFUXIAXINGQUSHI,NANYIFUZHI2019 NIANDEZENGSUHUISHENG。2019NIANZHONGGUOFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIZENGSUWEI10%,2020NIANQUANNIANZHONGGUOFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIZENGSUXIAOFUHUILUOZHI9%。

    YIFANGMIAN,2019NIANSHANGBANNIANFANGDICHANTOUZIZENGCHANGDEZHUYAODONGLIWEITUDIGOUZHIFEIYONG。2019NIANSHANGBANNIANTUDIGOUZHIFEIYONGZHANFANGDICHANTOUZIDEBILICHAOGUO30%,YUANCHAOLISHIPINGJUNSHUIPING;LINGYIFANGMIAN,TUDIGOUZHIFEIYONGDEZENGCHANGDABUFENLAIZIYUQUNIANTUDIJIAOYIDEYANQIFUKUAN,JINRU 2019NIANHOUTUDICHENGJIAOLIANGDAFUXIAXING。YINCI,2019NIANFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIDECILUNZENGSUHUISHENGBUJUYOUKECHIXUXING,FANGDICHANSHICHANGDUANQINEIGONGGEIHEXUQIULIANGFANGMIANJUNMEIYOUXIANZHULIHAO。

    四肖期期中准天天中码DANSHIBAOGAOYEZHICHU,2019 NIANXIABANNIANYILAIFANGDICHANXIAOSHOUZENGSULVEYOUHUISHENG,ZAIJIASHANGYIERXIANCHENGSHIZHUFANGXUQIURENGRANWANGSHENG,YINCIFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIZENGSUSHISUDEYALIYEBIJIAOXIAO。

    四肖期期中准天天中码ZAIZHENGCECENGMIAN,BAOGAOZHICHU,2020 NIANQUANGUOFANGDICHANDIAOKONGZHENGCERENGRANYIWENWEIZHU,CHUXIANDAFUDUCIJIZHENGCEDEKENENGXINGJIAOXIAO。ERSUIZHU“YICHENGYICE”JINYIBULUOSHI,SHANGHAI、SHENZHEN、GUANGZHOU、NANJINGHEQINGDAODENGYIERXIANCHENGSHIDEXIANGOUZHENGCEYOUSUOFANGKUAN。BAOGAORENWEI,BUFENGANGXUWANGSHENGCHENGSHIDEFANGDICHANSHICHANGJIANGKENENGCHUXIANHUORE。

    2019年底杠桿率或達216%

    2019NIANZHONGGUOHONGGUANGANGGANLVXIAOFUSHANGSHENG。GENJUGUOJIAZICHANFUZHAIBIAOYANJIUZHONGXINCESUAN,2019 NIANDISANJIDUZHONGGUOSHITIJINGJI(BAOKUOZHENGFU、FEIJINRONGQIYEHEJUMIN)GANGGANLVWEI 251.1%,YU 2018 NIANMODE 243.7%XIANGBI,SHANGSHENGLE7.4GEBAIFENDIAN。

    BAOGAOYUCE,JIEZHI2019NIANDIZHONGGUOGANGGANLVWEI216%,BI2018NIANNIANMODESHUIPINGGAO5GEBAIFENDIAN。

    四肖期期中准天天中码JINGUANJINQIHONGGUANGANGGANLVYOUXIAOFUSHANGSHENG,DANBAOGAORENWEI,GANGGANZONGLIANGRENGCHUYUHELIQUJIAN,BUZUYIYINFAGUODUODANYOU。BAOGAOTICHU,ZHONGGUOJINNIANLAIGANGGANLVDESHANGSHENGYOUQINEIZAIYUANYIN:DIYI,ZHONGGUOJINNIANLAIFANGDICHANSHICHANGDEFAZHANHEJINRONGSHENHUADETUIJIN,SHIDEDALIANGDETUDI、FANGWUDENGSHIWUZICHANKEYIYONGZUODIYAYIHUOQUYINXINGXINDAIZIJIN,ZHEHENDACHENGDUSHANGTAIGAOLEJUMINBUMENHEFEIJINRONGQIYEBUMENDEGANGGANLV;DIER,2008NIANYILAIDIFANGZHENGFUJIADAJIJIANTOUZILIDU,GENJUXIANGGUANCESUAN,DIFANGZHENGFUYINXINGFUZHAIGUIMODADAO30WANYIYUAN,ZHUYAOLAIYUANYUYINXINGDEXINDAIZIJIN,ZHUTUILEGANGGANLVDESHANGSHENG;DISAN,ZHONGGUORONGZIJIEGOUZHONGGUQUANRONGZIZHANBIDI、GUOMINCHUXULVCHANGQICHIXUJIAOGAOSHUIPING,SHIDEDALIANGDETOUZIZUIZHONGYIZHAIWUXINGSHICUNZAI,TUIGAOLEZHONGGUOGANGGANLVDEZHENGTISHUIPING。

    四肖期期中准天天中码ZHONGYANGJINGJIGONGZUOHUIYIZAIFANGFANHUAJIEZHONGDAFENGXIANLINGYUDEBUSHUZHONGMINGQUETIDAO:“YAOBAOCHIHONGGUANGANGGANLVJIBENWENDING,YASHIGEFANGZEREN。”BAOGAOYETICHULEZHENGCEJIANYI,JICHENGLIQUANGUOXINGDEJICHUSHESHITOUZIGONGSI,TONGYIGUANLIDIFANGJIJIANXIANGMUDEGUIHUA、RONGZI、JIANSHEYUJIANDU。

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